Major League Baseball's Trade Winds Are Shifting, and Willson Contreras is at the Eye of the Storm
The offseason is heating up, and the St. Louis Cardinals are at the center of a whirlwind of trade rumors. Earlier, Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado, two of the team's high-priced veterans, signaled a surprising willingness to waive their no-trade clauses. Gray, after discussions with new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, has already found a new home with the Red Sox. Arenado, while still in St. Louis, is reportedly open to considering a wider range of destinations. But here's where it gets really interesting: Willson Contreras, the Cardinals' third high-earning veteran, is now seemingly more open than ever to waiving his own no-trade protection.
Contreras, initially hesitant to leave St. Louis, has seemingly had a change of heart. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that he's increasingly receptive to a trade if the new team feels like a good fit. What's behind this shift? Perhaps witnessing Gray's departure and the constant buzz surrounding teammates like Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and others has been eye-opening. Maybe the 2025 postseason reignited his desire to compete for a championship. Whatever the reason, Contreras' newfound openness is significant.
But is a Contreras Trade a Sure Thing?
Not necessarily. While his contract isn't as complex as Gray's or Arenado's, it's not exactly a bargain. He's guaranteed $36.5 million over the next two seasons, plus a $5 million buyout on a club option for 2028, totaling $41.5 million. At 33 (turning 34 in May), could Contreras command a similar deal in free agency? It's possible, but unlikely to be significantly more.
Contreras' Value: A Balancing Act
Contreras is coming off a solid season, batting .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs and 31 doubles. His first year at first base showed promise, with Statcast grading him as 6 Outs Above Average. While not elite, his defense is serviceable and could improve with more experience.
Comparing him to Christian Walker, who signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros last offseason, provides some context. Walker, a defensive standout with 95 home runs in the previous three seasons, represents a higher ceiling. Contreras, while a good hitter and adequate defender, doesn't quite reach that level.
The Cardinals' Dilemma: To Trade or Not to Trade?
Trading Contreras offers clear benefits for the Cardinals. Shedding his salary would be a welcome relief for ownership, especially during a rebuilding phase. Including cash in a deal could also bring in valuable prospects, accelerating the team's rebuild. Additionally, trading Contreras would open up first base for Alec Burleson, creating opportunities for other young outfielders like Joshua Baez, Nathan Church, and Jordan Walker.
However, the Cardinals would likely need to absorb some of Contreras' remaining salary to secure a decent return. The more they absorb, the better the prospects they can acquire.
A Market for Contreras?
Despite the salary considerations, there's likely to be interest in Contreras. Teams like the Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets, Marlins, and Padres all have needs at first base or designated hitter. Even division rivals like the Reds or Pirates could be potential suitors. Interestingly, a team desperate for catching help might even consider Contreras as a solution behind the plate, though this seems less likely given the thin catching market.
The Bigger Picture: A Cardinals Rebuild in Full Swing
Contreras is just one piece of a larger puzzle. Bloom and the Cardinals front office are actively exploring trades for Arenado and are listening to offers for several other players. The team is clearly in rebuilding mode, and Contreras' potential departure would be a significant step in that direction.
What do you think? Is trading Contreras the right move for the Cardinals? Which team do you see him fitting best with? Let us know in the comments below!
