The Rule 5 Draft: A Second Chance for Minor League Talent, But Who Will Stick?
The 2025 Winter Meetings in Orlando concluded with the annual Rule 5 Draft, a unique event that offers minor leaguers on the cusp of stardom a shot at the big leagues. But here's the catch: it's not just about talent—it's about opportunity. Teams must either keep these players on their MLB roster for an entire season or risk losing them. And this is the part most people miss: only a handful of these players actually stay with their new teams long-term. So, who are this year's lucky 13, and what are their chances of making it?
How It Works: A Quick Primer
Before diving into the picks, let's clarify the rules. The Rule 5 Draft targets players who were drafted in 2022 (college) or 2021 (high school) and international signees from 2021 or earlier, provided they're not on a 40-man roster. These players must remain on their new team's MLB roster for the entire season or be offered back to their original team. It's a high-stakes game of musical chairs, and this year, 13 players got a seat at the table.
1. Rockies: RJ Petit (Tigers)
Petit, a towering 6-foot-8 right-hander, is the quintessential Rule 5 pick. With a 2.44 ERA in the upper minors and a fastball touching 98 mph, he's a strong candidate to stick in Colorado's bullpen. But here's the controversial part: can the Rockies' pitching staff really support another hard-thrower, or is this just a numbers game?
2. White Sox: Jedixson Paez (Red Sox)
At just 21, Paez is a control artist with a low-90s fastball and four other pitches. However, his limited experience above Single-A makes his roster spot tenuous. Is this a smart gamble, or are the White Sox setting themselves up for disappointment?
3. Nationals: Griff McGarry (Phillies)
Once a top 100 prospect, McGarry's stock has plummeted due to control issues. His mid-90s heater and nasty sweeper are undeniable, but can he reign in the walks? The Nationals are taking a risk, but is it one worth taking?
4. Giants (via Twins): Daniel Susac (Athletics)
In a rare Rule 5 trade, the Giants acquired Susac, a power-hitting catcher with 18 Triple-A home runs. His older brother, Andrew, played for the Giants, but does that guarantee success? And what does this trade say about the Twins' strategy?
5. Rangers (via Pirates): Carter Baumler (Orioles)
Baumler's injury history is a red flag, but his upper-90s fastball and analytics-friendly traits make him an intriguing pick. Did the Rangers just snag a hidden gem, or are they overlooking the risks?
6. Athletics: Ryan Watson (Giants)
Watson, a 28-year-old hard-thrower, has battled injuries but showed promise in Triple-A. Can he finally break through, or is he just another Rule 5 long shot?
7. Cardinals: Matt Pushard (Marlins)
Pushard, the oldest player on this list at 28, is MLB-ready with a mid-90s fastball and solid breaking balls. Why didn't the Marlins protect him? And can he make an immediate impact in St. Louis?
8. Astros: Roddery Muñoz (Reds)
Muñoz, a rare Rule 5 pick with MLB experience, has struggled in the big leagues. Can the Astros unlock his potential, or is this a wasted roster spot?
9. Guardians: Peyton Pallette (White Sox)
Pallette, a former top draft prospect, has transitioned to the bullpen with success. With Cleveland's pitching prowess, is he a lock to stick, or will he falter under pressure?
10. Blue Jays: Spencer Miles (Giants)
Miles is coming off back and Tommy John surgeries, making his selection a huge risk. Can he regain his mid-90s velocity, or is this a lost cause for the contending Blue Jays?
11. Yankees: Cade Winquest (Cardinals)
Winquest, a rare healthy starter in the Rule 5 Draft, faces an uphill battle in New York. Can he adapt to a relief role, or will he be the first Yankees Rule 5 pick since 2011 to fail?
12. Phillies: Zach McCambley (Marlins)
McCambley's slider is his calling card, but can he consistently dominate in the big leagues? The Phillies are taking a chance, but is it worth the roster spot?
13. White Sox: Alexander Alberto (Rays)
Alberto, a 6-foot-8 fireballer, is a high-risk, high-reward pick. His control issues and lack of experience above Single-A make him a long shot, but could he be the next Shane Smith?
Final Thoughts: Who Will Rise, and Who Will Fall?
The Rule 5 Draft is a gamble, but it's one that can pay off big. Just ask the White Sox, who struck gold with Shane Smith last year. But for every Smith, there are dozens who don't make it. Which of this year's picks will defy the odds? And which teams will be left wondering what could have been? Share your thoughts in the comments—who do you think will stick, and who will be offered back?
